INDIAN SPACE STRATEGIES AND POLICIES FOR FUTURE

Since the dawn of the space age, space related activities have been largely controlled and shaped by the governments. They still play a major role today and will continue to do so in future. Typically, states see space as a tool to support a broad range of public policy objectives. These include defense and security of a nation, environmental policies, the pursuit of scientific knowledge and economic development. Hence we need a concrete nationalized space policy for making space activities more resourceful and focused.  

India's space program started after the sputnik era of the late 50's. Pandit Nehru's approval for the application of space technology in Indian was an act of extraordinary foresight and courage, especially when coming from the man who had been instrumental in crippling the industry with his 'License Raj'. In the absence of technology of its operational systems and complexities and risks involved, it was a a brave decision that could only have been based on a vision of the future and an immense amount of faith in the Indian scientists and people of that time. The Indian Commission for Space Research (INCOSPAR) was set up in 1962 under the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE). Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) was created in 1969 and was brought under the Space Commission (Department of Space) in 1972 after it was constituted, to administer its activities. 

There was a lot of ruckus in the parliament when the issue of starting a space program was announced. These few famous words from Vikram Sarabhai, the pioneer of the Indian Space Program answer all the issues raised by our politicians back then - "There are some who question the relevance of space activities in a developing nation. To us, there is no ambiguity of purpose. We do not have the fantasy of competing with the economically advanced nations in the exploration of the moon or the planets, or manned space-flight. But we are convinced that if we are to play a meaningful role nationally, and in the community of nations, we must be second to none in the application of advanced technologies to the real problems of man and society." These lines of his became the policy of the space program for the next three decades. The first decade was dedicated mainly to the vision of Vikram Sarabhai to make India a self reliant country in the field of space technology and use it for national development. The next phase was the demonstration phase, when our scientists experimented with ideas and sent the first Indian satellites to space. After that, the realization of end to end systems phase came up, when all the data gathered in the past few years were put to use to make an indigenous launch vehicle called SLV, under the able guidance of Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam and Professor Satish Dhawan (then Chairman ISRO). There were a few failures and a lot of successes but India managed to carve a niche for itself in the field of Space technology in this world. Currently, it is in the operational phase, with a constellation of 23 satellites for various purposes like remote sensing, telecommunication, tele-medicine, education, tracking and astronomical experiments. 

Within a span of 3 decades, the Indian Space Program had achieved more than what was expected of it. Comparing with the other two organizations of the same stature (DRDO,HBRC), the performance of ISRO was better in terms of outputs delivered to the nation. This was made possible only due to proper strategizing and policy making within the organization. Like any other company, these two things- policy making & strategy making, play an important role in shaping up the organization. They are very much needed to make the activities within an organization more resourceful and focused. India currently ranks 6th in terms of budget allocation for space activities, the expenditure being around Rs.3500 cr annually. To see to it that tax-payers money is put to good use, there must be a proper policy in place to see to it what direction we want to give to our space program. What has already been done is pretty well documented and can be easily found on the click of a mouse. The aim for national development has been fulfilled with the range of Indian satellites currently operating in space and their details can be found on www.isro.gov.in. The question that arises is what now! After the success of Chandrayaan, ISRO's reputation as a leader in low cost access to space surely has gone up in the world market. But what is worth observing is the attitude of the decision makers towards ISRO after this huge success. With the sanctioning of the Rs.12000cr manned space flight program, it is clear that ISRO has managed to stay in the good books of the policy makers. This might just be the correct period when it should go for the massive policy shifts it has been looking for in years....

Since huge amount of data is available on strategies adopted in the past, I will delve only with what strategies ISRO can adopt in the future. Currently, a lot of scientific experiment based missions are on the block, like Chandrayaan-2, where a rover will land on the moon and collect samples, the human spaceflight program, the docking in space program, Mars orbiter and Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) program. This shows that the policy of our space program is gradually shifting from national development to scientific exploration and technology demonstration, as most of our societal needs have been met. The effects  of space technology might not have trickled down to one and all, but it surely has been the backbone behind our economic development. Take for instance the communication revolution or the DTH revolution. Without ISRO's satellites, they would not have been possible. Coming back to the point, we are in a transient phase today in terms of policy making for the future space program of India. The future strategies to give direction to the space program will be base on a lot of factors, some of which I think might be the following -:

(i) The Political Angle

India is in a very good position in international politics today. And the reason behind this is the galloping economy that has seen a growth rate of 7.0 (on an average) for the past few years. All international relations today are driven by economic competence of a nation. And India is on the verge of becoming the next global superpower. Its standing in international politics is unique and it will try to exploit this by strengthening diplomatic ties with existing and emerging space powers for better and more technology transfers in the form of pacts and memorandum of understandings (MoUs). These link ups should also affect the trade between the two countries in other areas like manufacturing and commerce. The space powers like USA and Russia saw space as an instrument for maintaining economic, political and scientific leadership. The demonstration of space technology prowess was at the peak during the cold war time, and it lead to many landmark missions like the Apollo mission, Voyager mission and spacewalk exercises by both USA and Russia. Although there were drastic budget cuts for space missions after the end of the cold war and the disintegration of the USSR,  it wasn't the end of history. National sovereignty, which concerns the protection of citizens, prestige and projection of soft power, are still motivations for most governments. In this context, a growing number of countries including the major geopolitical actors (Brazil, India, China and Russia) are recognizing the strategic value as well as threat that space represents as space technology becomes more and more sophisticated. The future of international politics will also be closely related to space, and this can be tracked down to the two most fundamental fodder for political actions- National security and energy. The renewed interest of nations in moon is majorly because of the availability of a particular isotope of Helium in its soil, which can act as a fuel for nuclear reactors used to generate power for civilian needs in the big seven nations (with respect to nuclear capability)- USA,Russia,China,India, France,Japan and UK. Also, space technology has been more than useful for serving armed forces of several nations, by providing satellite images of enemy territories and a advantageous position to keep warheads, that form an integral part of aggressive military weapon system. Recently, China shot down one of its ageing satellites with a surface to air missile, which turned a lot of heads in the world. It became only the third country in the world to possess such capability, and this unnerved many nations considering the aggressive political history of the nation and close linking of its military and space programs. Hence, the future of political wars will surely be based on space issues rather than territorial issues, and could be truly classified as the fictitious 'star wars'.   

(ii) Socio- Economic Angle 

Our space program strategies in the past have always been directed towards domestic social development, and this trend will continue in the future. But the focus should gradually shift from providing the technology to ensuring that the benefits of the technology trickles down to the people who actually need it. DOS must complete the chain of managing their resources, right from developing the technology to see to its implementation in all corners of the country. The sluggish state bureaucracy will thus be by-passed and the time taken to reap the benefits of a certain mission will also reduce, and thus increase the credibility of the organization among the masses. Currently, this model is adapted in the southern states and they have benefited hugely from it. But the focus now should shift to the underdeveloped states of the north and the north east. This will surely help in the industrialization of these states, combined by the self reliance of the huge rural population that reside in these parts of the nation. These two are the major factors that control the migration trends of population and increment of the human development index (HDI), both of which are in bad shape in these states. And if ISRO shifts its focus to these states, other industries will automatically start taking interest. Political situations might still be a negative influence in these places, but with the right attitude they can be easily overcome. Tie ups with NGOs can be a viable option rather than spending fruitful energy and manpower on management of the technology supply chain. Then there is the globalization aspect that counts heavily as a factor and indicator of socio-economic welfare of a state. More people will migrate from underdeveloped states to the developed ones, creating more scarcity of resources in the already overburdened states.  Culture will be globalized as long as we continue with the liberalization process, started way back in 1991. Income inequality both at the national and international levels will affect the demographic growth trends. In these conditions, correct space policies which promote social development in such a globalized world should be in place to  strengthen the domestic economy, and there by contribute in improving the socio-economic condition of the nation.

(iii) Commercial Angle

After the inception of Antrix Corporation in 1992, the commercial exploitation of our capabilities has been good enough. Currently, it has a turnover of 1 billion USD and trades with 47 countries. DTH operators in India and the middle-east are the biggest customers, followed by satellite services to small countries which do not possess launch capabilities. And the good thing to note is that India has captured this market by providing its space technology services at 25% of the cost of that charged by developed countries like the USA. But it will surely face tough competition in future from big private enterprises that have started to manage their economics so as to reduce the prices of the same commodities (space launches, satellite manufacturing, etc). Since the WTO agreement on basic telecommunications was signed in 1997, a number of countries have considerably reduced cross-border restrictions on market access, there by liberalizing the space sector leading to greater commercialization. The Agreement on Basic Telecommunication (ABT), signed again in 1997 has triggered the privatization of many space agencies, opening up market opportunities in this sector and creating pressure for restructuring and creation of a new international space consortium. Antrix wasn't slow to see these changes, with India being an important part of all these developments. In the near future, it must look to trade in space vehicle parts and services too, because it is a niche area and only a select few have complicated part manufacturing capabilities. Also, to expand its market activities it should look at international acquisitions /takeovers of private enterprises (especially of America and Europe). This is essential from current point of view as transponder prices have plunges 40-50% during the last few years, leading to tough competition in the market to enter the elite broadband market. For this to happen, the government should have the policies in place to allow Antrix to do so. These acquisitions will surely be helpful for the development of trade ties with agencies and states which are not currently on the customer list of Antrix. They might also help ISRO with their R&D as they deal with many such agencies for procuring sophisticated instruments for their launch vehicle and satellite programs. Space tourism is another profitable possibility which Antrix should be ready to offer with a certain market strategy, as lots of big enterprises have started showing interest in this. India's capabilities in earth observation are unquestionable today, and along with telecommunications, positioning and navigation services, it is at a commanding position in the space market today. And should further look for dominance in the commercial space sector by investing the profits earned by Antrix into space technology production and development of sophisticated services like in-orbit manufacturing (testing and manufacturing of pharmaceutical products and new alloys), space power generation (development of space solar power systems to provide energy from space to earth) and extra terrestrial mining of minerals. Space insurance (pre-launch,in-orbit and third party property liability) is another way which might be attractive to the users of space technology. It will act as a critical element of commercial launch vehicle and satellite services industry in the future. Prospects of all these activities are limited by dependency on the reduction of cost of access to space and a favourable political climate. 

(iv) Industrial promotion and development

While commercial demand for space products and services has grown in importance over the years, governments still represent a major market for the space industry in most of the countries. Same is the case in India, where space is one of the few sectors exclusively under the government control. With budget allocation to meet space demands increasing every year, the opportunities for private manufacturers in this sector is also increasing. This happens so because a huge chunk of the public space budget is contracted out to such private firms in one form or the other. But the private aerospace industry in India hasn't shown much growth despite the liberalization of rules two decades back, mainly due to a number of institutional, legal and regulatory obstacles that slows the sector's development and may even threaten the existence of some companies. The major obstacles are in the form of market access restrictions, export controls and investment restrictions, legal constraints and unreliability of the state owned main industry, which is subject to policy changes at the brink of change in governance. Framing concrete policies favourable for the growth of aerospace industry and deregulating the sector to an extent would surely help in giving it a boost. Industry partnership should be encouraged by outsourcing not only manufacturing based jobs, but proper R&D related work which ISRO may not have enough time and resources for. Joint space missions can be another way of involving the best of capabilities of the industry and ISRO. This would increase the flow of capital within the sector at the domestic level and should be mutually beneficial. Jobs will be created in this sector at a faster rate as more and more manpower will be required to cater to the increasing needs. The partnership with industry will be a mutually beneficial association for sure. The joint venture of making the Light Combat aircraft (LCA) is an example, where people from academia and industry collaborated to make the first indigenous Indian fighter aircraft. Such ventures give a boost to the R&D organisations, which in turn gives a impetus to the market as good R&D gives a technological edge that is very essential in today's market. The future of space activities will depend on the development of many other advanced technologies like nanotechnology, biotechnology, robotics & artificial intelligence, innovative manufacturing techniques like micro-manufacturing, information & communication technology, MEMS, smart materials, alternative propulsion systems, space transportation systems and many other things on which space technology depends directly or indirectly. Looking at the breadth of the activities needed to sustain and adhere to our future plans, it is extremely necessary that the private enterprises be more involved with the space activities of India. And if we succeed in promoting industry, we will be indirectly benefited from the revenue generated from them in the form of taxes that will add to our national income.

(v) Human Resource Development

The space program of India must look forward to human resource development to meet its future needs in the space sector. The setting up of the Indian Institute of Space Science and Technology (IIST) was one such step, where students are selected through a national examination after +2 level itself. The space commission must make such bold moves so as to hold back the national creme from going out to other countries, by providing them equivalent facilities in their own country. As the industry-state partnership increases, reverse brain drain might also start taking place, where Indians working abroad might come back to work in India subject to the conditions that they get similar working environment and salaries. DOS must encourage such trends and try to build a working culture that takes the good points of both the western corporate style and the conventional Indian style. Programmes must be initiated at the school levels itself to increase the know-how about space sciences among the students at an early age. Today, more than 95% of the average Indian will not be able to recall the immense role that space technology plays in his day to day life. Awareness creation should be a strategy to gain public acceptance of its programs, which can help tilt political decisions in its favours. Through its village resource centers and tele-education centers, it should introduce personality development and vocational training modules that would ensure skilled labor availability at no extra investment from the other side. The model of the National Natural Resources Management System (NNRMS) is a classic one, where around 350 professionals/university faculty members/school teachers and students from different departments are being trained annually. There should be more such initiatives to allow the dispersion of knowledge among the masses at a greater level. 

(vi)  Environmental Issues

The future policies on space should be made keeping environmental concerns in mind. The current impending problem of space debris is a topic of major discussion in international circles these days. It is estimated that there are around 5000 defunct satellites orbiting the earth today. And when we take into account the parts of the rockets and space stations, the amount of junk orbiting the earth takes an alarming value. The disposal of these wastes is a major issue and needs immediate attention, so that no further dispute happens in near future. Also, the need for developing alternative propulsion systems is necessary for future space exploration missions because of scarcity of energy resources currently available on earth. 

(vii) Addressing National security issues

Because space technology has both civilian and military applications, the state has a strong interest in not only fundamental space research but also in developing certain space assets and creating a healthy national security. From the economic advantages point of view it is not a very good proposition, as some of military activities may be classified and the technology can not be  commercialized. But in the present scenario, when our neighbouring countries possess such capabilities, we should not be shy to develop our own aerospace command. The shift in policy should be to a level where our international standing on the peaceful uses of space technology remains intact, without compromising on our national security. Today, USA has 97 and Russia has 40 satellites exclusively for military purposes, with camera resolution of around 0.2m. In comparison, India has a couple of satellites which cater to such needs. With China marching ahead aggressively in integrating its military prowess with its new found space prowess's, it becomes very necessary for India to involve more co-operation between the defence and the space sector. This will reduce the duplicity of efforts for both sides, as they can do some specific R&D together  (like the development of scramjet engine for RLV and the in-process Brahmos hypersonic cruise missile, and solid motor boosters, etc can be done  together to give quicker and better results)  and save unnecessary wastage of public money.Also, future security issues for a state will be the threats posed by terrorists groups, who become more and more sophisticated in terms of the technology possessed by them. To counter internal conflicts as well as international threats posed by such hostile groups, space technology will hold the key.

All the above mentioned points are my own opinions and haven't been copied from any text. There are no references for most of the things I have written, and I do not guarantee the accuracy of any statistical data which I might have mentioned. This write up is an accumulation of inferences of data that I had analysed about the Indian Space Program, by reading texts on the past and present policies and strategies, discussing with my friends here at Indian Institute of Space Science & Technology (IIST) and with my peers who have had an experience in ISRO and DOS and played an important role in policy making. Please leave your suggestions and opinions on this topic. I am open to discussion.